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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.


Thursday, February 17, 2022

SPC Feb 17, 2022 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1005 AM CST Thu Feb 17 2022 Valid 171630Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED ON CENTRAL/NORTHERN MS...WESTERN/MIDDLE TN...AND NORTHWEST AL... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected across portions of the Mid-South, Tennessee Valley, and the lower Ohio Valley, mainly through this evening. Damaging winds and tornadoes (at least a couple of which may be strong) are the primary threats. ...Mid South/TN Valley into the OH Valley... A shortwave trough over southeast KS/northeast OK will eject northeast towards the Lower Great Lakes through tonight. Attendant surface cyclone near the MO/AR border will deepen as it tracks across the OH Valley towards the northern Appalachians. In advance of a cold front trailing the surface cyclone, continued northward moisture transport will result in mid-upper 60s boundary-layer dewpoints reaching western portions of TN/AL and a plume of MLCAPE from 500-1000 J/kg centered on eastern LA and MS. With northern/eastern extent, lower quality boundary-layer moisture and/or preceding rainfall will limit prospects for appreciable surface-based instability. Both pre-frontal and frontal convective bands are ongoing from the Mid-South to the Sabine Valley. Cloud breaks in MS out ahead of this activity should support adequate destabilization that broken bands of storms with several embedded supercells should develop between 18-21Z across the Lower MS Valley and spread towards AL/Middle TN into this evening. Despite the rather modest buoyancy and lapse rates expected, highly enlarged and impressive low-level hodographs will support potential for at least a couple strong tornadoes centered on central to northern MS and adjacent portions of western TN/AL. Otherwise, a shallow/forced band of convection will likely accompany the surface cyclone and trailing cold front just to the south. Buoyancy will remain meager close to the OH River and some low-level static stability should persist through the day into tonight. However, thermodynamic profiles will be sensitive to changes of only a few degrees, such that there is large variance in the potential outcomes for coverage of damaging winds, in addition to a line-embedded tornado or two as far north as the cyclone track through this evening. Overnight, the severe threat will diminish with northeast and east extent as a result of minimal buoyancy and the stronger forcing for ascent no longer phasing with the remaining weakly unstable warm sector to the south. ..Grams/Squitieri.. 02/17/2022 Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
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