Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0308 AM CST Tue Jan 04 2022
Valid 071200Z - 121200Z
...DISCUSSION...
A large upper trough is expected to be over the eastern CONUS on
Friday/D4, and is forecast to move out of the Northeast on
Saturday/D5. An associated area of high pressure will move from the
MS Valley to the Mid Atlantic during the same period, with low-level
moisture return occurring late Saturday/D5 into Sunday/D6 across the
Southeast as a positive-tilt upper trough moves from the Four
Corners area across the southern Plains.
At least a low-end severe threat may develop around Sunday/D7 across
the lower MS Valley as mid to upper 60s F dewpoints spread north
ahead of a cold front. At this time, it appears the positive-tilt
nature of the upper trough and the fast/potentially undercutting
nature of the cold front will preclude any significant severe
potential. However, front-parallel winds aloft and MUCAPE of
500-1000 J/kg may support some damaging wind potential.
The aforementioned shortwave trough will then become absorbed into a
larger-scale upper trough which is forecast to amplify across much
of the Great Lakes and Northeast, with high pressure rapidly
stabilizing much the eastern half of the CONUS.
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