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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.


Monday, January 31, 2022

SPC Jan 31, 2022 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 PM CST Mon Jan 31 2022 Valid 312000Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER THE MIDDLE TEXAS GULF COAST REGION... ...SUMMARY... A marginal threat for severe hail/wind and perhaps a tornado exists this afternoon over the middle Texas Coast and vicinity. ...Synopsis... Earlier thunderstorm activity has moved into the Gulf of Mexico with mostly showers and non-severe thunderstorms remaining over land. A few isolated strong to severe storms may form this afternoon, particularly on the southwestern edge of ongoing activity. In this region, slightly greater instability has developed where some breaks in the clouds have occurred. However, low-level lapse rates and effective shear remain weak. Therefore, any severe threat should remain marginal and isolated. ..Bentley.. 01/31/2022 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1002 AM CST Mon Jan 31 2022/ ...TX... No changes have been made to the ongoing outlook. Scattered thunderstorms are ongoing this morning over the middle TX Gulf Coast. This is just southeast of the center of a compact upper low, and in a region of moderate low-level warm advection. This activity is expected to persist through the afternoon and evening, slowly building eastward and offshore. In the meantime, forecast soundings show cold temperatures aloft and relatively steep mid-level lapse rates. This will promote a risk of isolated strong cells capable of hail and/or locally gusty/damaging winds. Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
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CHICAGO UTC-6 during CST (Central Standard Time, e.g., winter)
CHICAGO UTC-5 during CDT (Daylight Savings Time, e.g., summer)