SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0159 PM CST Mon Jan 31 2022
Valid 312000Z - 011200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING OVER THE MIDDLE TEXAS GULF COAST REGION...
...SUMMARY...
A marginal threat for severe hail/wind and perhaps a tornado exists
this afternoon over the middle Texas Coast and vicinity.
...Synopsis...
Earlier thunderstorm activity has moved into the Gulf of Mexico with
mostly showers and non-severe thunderstorms remaining over land. A
few isolated strong to severe storms may form this afternoon,
particularly on the southwestern edge of ongoing activity. In this
region, slightly greater instability has developed where some breaks
in the clouds have occurred. However, low-level lapse rates and
effective shear remain weak. Therefore, any severe threat should
remain marginal and isolated.
..Bentley.. 01/31/2022
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1002 AM CST Mon Jan 31 2022/
...TX...
No changes have been made to the ongoing outlook. Scattered
thunderstorms are ongoing this morning over the middle TX Gulf
Coast. This is just southeast of the center of a compact upper low,
and in a region of moderate low-level warm advection. This activity
is expected to persist through the afternoon and evening, slowly
building eastward and offshore. In the meantime, forecast soundings
show cold temperatures aloft and relatively steep mid-level lapse
rates. This will promote a risk of isolated strong cells capable of
hail and/or locally gusty/damaging winds.
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