SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0204 AM CST Mon Jan 31 2022
Valid 021200Z - 031200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Wednesday.
...Synopsis...
A large-scale mid/upper trough extending from the northern Rockies
to northwest Mexico will pivot eastward on Wednesday, becoming
oriented from the northern Plains to the southern Rockies/northern
Mexico by Thursday morning. Moderate deep-layer southwesterly flow
will extend from TX to the Great Lakes and Northeast. Meanwhile,
south/southeast low-level flow over the Gulf of Mexico will allow
60s F surface dewpoints to spread across the TX Gulf Coast into the
Lower MS Valley ahead of an east/southeastward-advancing arctic cold
front. A lack of stronger height falls/cooling aloft will lead to
poor midlevel lapse rates, though increasing boundary-layer moisture
will help support weak destabilization. Large-scale forcing for
ascent also will remain weak across the region as the upper trough
stays well to the west of the TX coast/Lower MS Valley. Isolated
thunderstorms will be possible, though severe convection is not
anticipated, and heavy rain will likely be the main hazard.
..Leitman.. 01/31/2022
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