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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.

Monday, January 31, 2022

SPC Jan 31, 2022 0830 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0204 AM CST Mon Jan 31 2022 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... A large-scale mid/upper trough extending from the northern Rockies to northwest Mexico will pivot eastward on Wednesday, becoming oriented from the northern Plains to the southern Rockies/northern Mexico by Thursday morning. Moderate deep-layer southwesterly flow will extend from TX to the Great Lakes and Northeast. Meanwhile, south/southeast low-level flow over the Gulf of Mexico will allow 60s F surface dewpoints to spread across the TX Gulf Coast into the Lower MS Valley ahead of an east/southeastward-advancing arctic cold front. A lack of stronger height falls/cooling aloft will lead to poor midlevel lapse rates, though increasing boundary-layer moisture will help support weak destabilization. Large-scale forcing for ascent also will remain weak across the region as the upper trough stays well to the west of the TX coast/Lower MS Valley. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible, though severe convection is not anticipated, and heavy rain will likely be the main hazard. ..Leitman.. 01/31/2022 Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
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