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Weather conditions on bar directly above are near Lakefront. Tabs under Moon Phases refer to O'Hare (official).

Archives for SPC Convective outlook are updated daily with a live map a the beginning of the article. Touch or click map to get possible update, and follow link at end of article for referral to NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center. Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data were updated 24-48 hours after end of each day prior to Dec. 2020.

Saturday, January 29, 2022

SPC Jan 29, 2022 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook

Day 4-8 Outlook Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0243 AM CST Sat Jan 29 2022 Valid 011200Z - 061200Z ...DISCUSSION... An upper trough is forecast to deepen across the western U.S. on Day 4/Tue and eject into the Plains on Day 5/Wed. Strong deep-layer southwesterly flow ahead of the upper trough in southerly low-level flow across the Gulf Coast region will allow for moderate moisture return from the TX coast through the Lower MS Valley and northern Gulf Coast vicinity early in the period. By Day 6/Thu, the upper trough is forecast to lift northeast across the Midwest. The strongest forcing for ascent will remain north of the southeastern U.S. However, a cold front will develop eastward across the Mid-South and northern Gulf Coast states, and widespread showers and thunderstorms are likely. Poor lapse rates and weak diurnal heating will limit destabilization despite 60s F surface dewpoints. Nevertheless, moderate to strong deep-layer southwesterly flow in the presence of weak instability may be sufficient for a narrow corridor of marginal severe thunderstorm potential from far southeast LA/southern MS/AL and the western FL Panhandle on Thursday. At this time, severe potential appears too uncertain/limited to include 15-percent probabilities. The upper trough will continue to shift east/northeast on Day 7/Fri while a closed low develops over the southwestern states/northern Mexico. The southwestern upper low/shortwave trough will migrate east into TX at the end of the period. However, the cold front from Day 6/7-Thu/Fri and strong surface high pressure across much of the U.S. on Day 8/Sat will preclude thunderstorm potential. Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC