Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0243 AM CST Sat Jan 29 2022
Valid 011200Z - 061200Z
...DISCUSSION...
An upper trough is forecast to deepen across the western U.S. on Day
4/Tue and eject into the Plains on Day 5/Wed. Strong deep-layer
southwesterly flow ahead of the upper trough in southerly low-level
flow across the Gulf Coast region will allow for moderate moisture
return from the TX coast through the Lower MS Valley and northern
Gulf Coast vicinity early in the period. By Day 6/Thu, the upper
trough is forecast to lift northeast across the Midwest. The
strongest forcing for ascent will remain north of the southeastern
U.S. However, a cold front will develop eastward across the
Mid-South and northern Gulf Coast states, and widespread showers and
thunderstorms are likely. Poor lapse rates and weak diurnal heating
will limit destabilization despite 60s F surface dewpoints.
Nevertheless, moderate to strong deep-layer southwesterly flow in
the presence of weak instability may be sufficient for a narrow
corridor of marginal severe thunderstorm potential from far
southeast LA/southern MS/AL and the western FL Panhandle on
Thursday. At this time, severe potential appears too
uncertain/limited to include 15-percent probabilities.
The upper trough will continue to shift east/northeast on Day 7/Fri
while a closed low develops over the southwestern states/northern
Mexico. The southwestern upper low/shortwave trough will migrate
east into TX at the end of the period. However, the cold front from
Day 6/7-Thu/Fri and strong surface high pressure across much of the
U.S. on Day 8/Sat will preclude thunderstorm potential.
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