SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1135 PM CST Sat Jan 01 2022
Valid 021200Z - 031200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHEAST AND THE CAROLINAS...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with locally damaging wind gusts and perhaps a tornado
or two are possible across parts of the Southeast and Carolinas
today into this evening.
...Portions of the Southeast into the Carolinas...
A series of modest upper-level shortwave impulses are expected to
migrate northeast across parts of the Southeast and Carolinas during
the first half of the period ahead of the main upper shortwave
trough, which will progress from the southern Plains to the southern
Appalachians today/tonight. Weak surface cyclogenesis is forecast
somewhere along the frontal wave from southwest GA into SC. The
effective surface front is expected to extend from the NC/SC
Piedmont southwestward toward the central Gulf Coast this morning.
The northern portion of the boundary is expected to quickly shift
east toward the NC/SC coast as the lead shortwave impulse lifts
northeast, while the southern portion of the front shifts eastward
more slowly through the day.
Surface dewpoints mainly in the mid/upper 60s will support weak
instability across the warm sector. However, limited heating and
poor midlevel lapse rates, along with a warm layer around 700 mb
will limit stronger destabilization. In addition to limited warm
sector instability, the passage of the first upper shortwave impulse
may be ill-timed with peak diurnal heating cycle. Strong vertical
shear will be in place, though deep-layer flow will largely remain
parallel to the surface boundary. This could result in storms
becoming undercut by the front and/or storm outflows. Some modest
low-level hodograph curvature is indicative of rotating storms
within broken bands. Given the expected parameter space, isolated
severe/damaging wind gusts and a couple of tornadoes will be
possible today into this evening. A narrow corridor of greater
relative severe threat could develop over portions of the FL
Panhandle into parts of southwest GA, but confidence in robust
pre-frontal convective development remains too low to include higher
than Marginal severe probabilities at this time.
..Leitman/Lyons.. 01/02/2022
Read more LIVE: spc.noaa.gov
http://dlvr.it/SGNfwZ
