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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.

Sunday, January 2, 2022

SPC Jan 2, 2022 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1135 PM CST Sat Jan 01 2022 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST AND THE CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with locally damaging wind gusts and perhaps a tornado or two are possible across parts of the Southeast and Carolinas today into this evening. ...Portions of the Southeast into the Carolinas... A series of modest upper-level shortwave impulses are expected to migrate northeast across parts of the Southeast and Carolinas during the first half of the period ahead of the main upper shortwave trough, which will progress from the southern Plains to the southern Appalachians today/tonight. Weak surface cyclogenesis is forecast somewhere along the frontal wave from southwest GA into SC. The effective surface front is expected to extend from the NC/SC Piedmont southwestward toward the central Gulf Coast this morning. The northern portion of the boundary is expected to quickly shift east toward the NC/SC coast as the lead shortwave impulse lifts northeast, while the southern portion of the front shifts eastward more slowly through the day. Surface dewpoints mainly in the mid/upper 60s will support weak instability across the warm sector. However, limited heating and poor midlevel lapse rates, along with a warm layer around 700 mb will limit stronger destabilization. In addition to limited warm sector instability, the passage of the first upper shortwave impulse may be ill-timed with peak diurnal heating cycle. Strong vertical shear will be in place, though deep-layer flow will largely remain parallel to the surface boundary. This could result in storms becoming undercut by the front and/or storm outflows. Some modest low-level hodograph curvature is indicative of rotating storms within broken bands. Given the expected parameter space, isolated severe/damaging wind gusts and a couple of tornadoes will be possible today into this evening. A narrow corridor of greater relative severe threat could develop over portions of the FL Panhandle into parts of southwest GA, but confidence in robust pre-frontal convective development remains too low to include higher than Marginal severe probabilities at this time. ..Leitman/Lyons.. 01/02/2022 Read more LIVE: