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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.


Saturday, January 1, 2022

SPC Jan 1, 2022 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1157 PM CST Fri Dec 31 2021 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Widespread thunderstorms are expected from the ArkLaTex to the Western Appalachians today. All severe-weather hazards are possible in parts of these areas, including large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes. Strong tornadoes are possible. ...Northeast TX to Western Appalachians... Late-evening water-vapor imagery depicts a well-defined upper vort/short-wave trough along the southeast AZ/NM border, shifting northeast in line with latest model guidance. Dominant upper ridging over the southeastern US will move little during the day1 period which will force this short wave across MO into the OH Valley where it will deamplify within the broader, strong southwesterly flow regime. Resultant mid-level height falls are not forecast to be that strong across the warm sector which will encourage the most concentrated convection to congregate along/near the frontal zone. Additionally, weak surface low is forecast to track northeast along the wind shift in response to the ejecting short wave from AR at daybreak to WV by 02/00z. Low-level warm advection is currently (0530z) aiding a corridor of maturing thunderstorms from north-central TX-southeast OK-northern AR. This activity will likely prove to be the western-northern edge of strong/severe convection at the start of the period. 00z soundings across the warm sector were considerably capped this evening and forecast soundings across portions of the warm sector later today continue to suggest a relative warm layer near 700mb which is expected to limit lapse rates through this layer. It's not entirely clear how much discrete warm sector development will occur at lower latitudes but wind profiles/low-level shear certainly favor supercells and tornadoes, and potentially a strong tornado or two. Higher confidence in thunderstorm coverage exists with frontal convection. Storm mode will be considerably messy with line segments and clusters along/near the wind shift. Even a few embedded supercells can be expected given the observed strong wind fields. 01/00z NAM suggests 65kt LLJ will translate ahead of the short wave from northern MS/southern AR early, across MS/western TN by 18z, then into eastern KY by early evening. This reflects the stronger forcing and likely the primary corridor for more concentrated strong/severe thunderstorms. Damaging winds and tornadoes are the primary risks, though some hail may be noted across western/central portions of the outlook. ..Darrow/Lyons.. 01/01/2022 Read more LIVE:
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