SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0604 AM CST Mon Jan 10 2022
Valid 101300Z - 111200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
A few thunderstorms are expected across central and south Florida,
mainly this afternoon/evening.
...FL mainly this afternoon/evening...
In the wake of deep midlevel trough over the Northeast, a surface
cold front will continue to move southeastward across the Gulf of
Mexico and FL peninsula through tonight. Daytime heating across
central/south FL and a diffuse pre-frontal trough will help focus
the development of a few thunderstorms, mainly this
afternoon/evening across southeast FL where there may be some local
sea breeze enhancement. MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg and weak vertical
shear suggest that severe storms are unlikely.
...Elsewhere through tonight...
A lake-effect snow band will persist through the afternoon off Lake
Ontario. Shallow buoyancy is expected within this band, but the
entire profile will be colder than -5 to -6 C, which suggests that
lightning production will be sparse (if at all). Farther east, any
ocean-effect convection deep enough to produce lightning flashes
should remain well off the southeast New England coast tonight.
..Thompson/Leitman.. 01/10/2022
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