SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0208 AM CST Tue Dec 07 2021 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms appear unlikely across the contiguous United States on Thursday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Large-scale upper troughing is expected to amplify over the western CONUS on Thursday. A southern-stream shortwave trough initially just west of Baja California should move quickly northeastward over northern Mexico through the day. This feature is forecast to eventually reach the southern Plains late Thursday night into early Friday morning while being absorbed into the synoptic-scale upper trough over the western states. Robust lee cyclogenesis appears likely over the central High Plains through the period. A strong low-level mass response will transport rich low-level moisture from the Gulf of Mexico northward across central/east TX, the lower MS Valley, and Mid-South by the end of the period. Mainly elevated convection appears possible across this general region in the warm and moist low-level advection regime. MUCAPE is forecast to remain fairly muted owing to modest mid-level lapse rates, which should temper the overall severe potential with any thunderstorms that can develop on Thursday. Across the Pacific Northwest, isolated lightning flashes appear possible mainly along/near the WA/OR Coast with low-topped convection as cold mid-level temperatures associated with a progressive shortwave trough overspread this region. ..Gleason.. 12/07/2021 Read more LIVE: spc.noaa.gov
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