SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1110 PM CST Mon Dec 06 2021 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... A broad upper-level cyclonic flow regime will persist across much of the CONUS today and tonight. An embedded shortwave trough will migrate through larger-scale flow from TX/northeast Mexico toward the southeast U.S. coast by Wednesday morning. The upper pattern will remain bifurcated across the western U.S. as an upper low/trough develops southward offshore from the CA coast and an upper ridge over the northern Intermountain region pushes eastward and is replaced by a shortwave trough over the Pacific Northwest. At the surface, post-frontal high pressure will encompass much of the eastern half of the CONUS, leading to mostly stable conditions and precluding a risk of severe thunderstorms. However, modest low/mid level warm advection will occur across the Southeast as the TX shortwave trough ejects eastward during the afternoon and into the overnight hours. Shallow elevated convection, bringing mainly rain showers is expected with this warm advection regime, but a few lightning flashes are possible from southern LA into SC with any deeper cores that develop given modest midlevel lapse rates and cold temperatures aloft. ..Leitman/Weinman.. 12/07/2021 Read more LIVE: spc.noaa.gov
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