SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1200 AM CST Mon Dec 06 2021 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN THE ARKLAMISS VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms are likely during the morning and early afternoon across within the ArkLaMiss vicinity. Damaging wind gusts will be the primary hazard. ...Synopsis... A strong mid-level trough will continue to move eastward through the Midwest and into the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast today. An increasingly occluded surface low will shift from the upper Great Lakes vicinity into Quebec. A trailing cold front will arc southwestward from the surface low through the Ohio Valley into the lower Mississippi Valley and central Texas. This front will make steady progress through the day, moving off of the Gulf and East coasts by the end of the period. ...ArkLaMiss Vicinity... A line of strong to occasionally severe storms will likely be ongoing at the start of the period. This line will continue south and east through the day. Cloud cover ahead of the front will limit the available buoyancy, but dewpoints in the low to mid 60s F should support 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE in the region. While low/mid-level flow will decrease, particularly during the afternoon, enough favorable overlap of 35-40 kt winds within the lowest 2 km will promote a threat for damaging wind gusts as the cold front moves through by early afternoon. Enough storm coverage is expected to include 15% wind probabilities. ...Coastal/East Texas... Greater moisture and warmer temperatures are expected across this region. Given the displacement of the mid-level forcing to the northeast, storm coverage will generally remain isolated. Initially steep mid-level lapse rates will support a threat for marginally severe hail. This will particularly be the case if a discrete storm or two can form ahead of the front. An isolated damaging wind gust will also be possible. ...Mid-South into Southeast... Strong low-level winds and slightly better mid-level forcing will exist across the region. The main limiting factor will be the rapid drop-off of buoyancy with northeastward extent. Isolated wind gusts are possible with the strongest storms along the cold front. ...Northeast... Strong forcing and stout low/mid-level winds will overspread the region during the afternoon and evening. While weak convection along the cold front is possible, the potential for deeper updrafts and convectively augmented wind gusts still appears low. ..Wendt/Darrow.. 12/06/2021 Read more LIVE: spc.noaa.gov
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