SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1016 AM CST Sun Dec 05 2021 Valid 051630Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY AFTER DARK FROM THE ARKLATEX REGION INTO PARTS OF THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY.... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible from the Arklatex region to the Mid-South and lower Ohio River Valley. ...Lower OH into Mid/Lower MS Valleys... Morning water vapor loop shows an upper trough amplifying over the northern Plains. The associated surface cold front is now over NE/KS, and is forecast to sweep southeastward across much of the MS and lower OH valleys by tomorrow morning. The result will be scattered showers and thunderstorms along and ahead of the front. Present indications are that the capping inversion will weaken this evening ahead of the front, with strong southwesterly low-level winds transporting dewpoints in the upper 50s and lower 60s into the region. This will encourage shower and scattered thunderstorm development along the front after dark from southern IL into southern MO and northern AR. CAM solutions suggest that initial robust activity will be sparse, but sufficient CAPE and shear through the cloud-bearing layer could pose a risk of hail in the strongest cores over parts of MO/AR. Farther northeast, linear convective segments could result in gusty/damaging wind gusts. As the night progresses, coverage of deep convection along the front will likely increase. It is uncertain how many organized storm clusters will form along the front, but 40-50 knot southwesterly low-level winds and considerable shear will promote a risk of bowing structures capable of damaging winds and/or QLCS tornadoes. This threat will persist through the early morning as storms develop southeastward into parts of MS/TN/KY. ..Hart/Thompson.. 12/05/2021 Read more LIVE: spc.noaa.gov
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