SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1220 AM CST Fri Dec 03 2021 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms appear unlikely across the contiguous United States on Saturday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... The primary mid-level westerly jet should remain confined to the northern tier of the CONUS on Saturday, while gradual amplification occurs over the northwestern/north-central states by the end of the period as a shortwave trough strengthens over this region. A subtle southern-stream shortwave trough is forecast to advance eastward across the lower MS Valley and parts of the Southeast through the day, while another upper trough/low moves slowly eastward across Baja California and portions of the Southwest. At the surface, a cold front should make only slow southward progress Saturday across the Mid-South/TN Valley as high pressure shifts from the northern/central Plains and Midwest towards the Atlantic Coast by early Sunday morning. An area of weak low pressure may exist along the Red River (OK/TX border vicinity), with a dryline extending southward from this low across central TX. Isolated thunderstorms may be ongoing Saturday morning from portions of northeast TX towards the lower MS Valley in association with the weak southern-stream shortwave trough described above. Additional convective development through the day appears uncertain, as large-scale ascent behind the departing shortwave trough is expected to remain nebulous. Modest capping across the warm sector may also tend to inhibit thunderstorm development through much of the day. Still, there appears to be some chance for at least isolated thunderstorms to develop by Saturday evening along/east of the weak surface low across parts of north-central/northeast TX and eastern OK. Short-term guidance continues to show variability regarding the quality and northward extent of low-level moisture return across these areas, which impacts the degree of boundary-layer instability that may develop. Regardless, deep-layer shear is forecast to remain fairly weak, which should generally limit the potential for organized severe thunderstorms. Additional convection may develop Saturday night from the southern Plains into the lower MS Valley and Mid-South as a southwesterly low-level jet slowly strengthens, although this activity will likely remain elevated. ..Gleason.. 12/03/2021 Read more LIVE: spc.noaa.gov
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