SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0147 AM CST Sat Dec 25 2021
Valid 271200Z - 281200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms will be possible along the California Coast
and from eastern Oklahoma into the Ohio Valley.
...Synopsis...
An upper-level trough is forecast to move from somewhere near the
California Coast Monday morning to the southern High Plains by
Tuesday morning. As this trough crosses the Rockies, expect strong
lee cyclogenesis in eastern Colorado early Tuesday morning. A warm
front is forecast to extend from the surface low across northern
Oklahoma/southern Kansas and into the Tennessee Valley.
...Eastern Plains into the Ohio Valley...
Significant mass response is expected across the southern Plains as
a result of the upper-level shortwave trough and associated strong
jet streak approaching the region. This will result in a
strengthening low-level jet across much of the Plains and increasing
isentropic ascent north of the warm front between 06Z and 12Z
Tuesday. The strengthening low-level jet will also bring Gulf
moisture northward which is expected to result in some buoyancy to
support thunderstorms. While sufficient for thunderstorms, the
moisture will likely not be great enough to support greater
instability necessary for a severe weather threat.
..Bentley.. 12/25/2021
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