SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1024 AM CST Thu Dec 23 2021
Valid 231630Z - 241200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
SACRAMENTO VALLEY...
...SUMMARY...
A brief/weak tornado and small hail are possible in a portion of the
Sacramento Valley late this afternoon.
...Sacramento Valley...
Ahead of the offshore upper trough that will reach SoCal early
Friday, warm conveyor-related steady precipitation ongoing across
north-central California early today will gradually shift southward,
with more scattered low-topped convection expected to develop across
northern California coincident with some cloud breaks later today.
By late afternoon, low/mid-level lapse rates are expected to
modestly steepen with the potential development of a couple hundred
J/kg SBCAPE. That may coincide with a backing or persistence of
south/southeasterly surface winds in the interior valley with a
related modest increase in low-level hodograph curvature. This
scenario could support a weak supercell or two late this afternoon,
with the possibility of a brief/weak tornado and small hail.
..Guyer.. 12/23/2021
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