SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1030 AM CST Wed Dec 22 2021
Valid 221630Z - 231200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE COASTAL
PACIFIC NORTHWEST...
...SUMMARY...
A brief tornado and/or isolated damaging winds are possible along
the Washington coast this afternoon, and along the Oregon to
northern California coast this evening into the overnight.
...Pacific Northwest...
A positive-tilt upper trough off the coast of southern British
Columbia will continue to amplify and dig southeastward as it
approaches the Pacific Northwest tonight. A related cold front will
spread inland across coastal Washington later this afternoon/early
evening and parts of Oregon tonight. Overall buoyancy will remain
minimal, but low-topped convection should increase near the front
later today. Wind profiles will be conditionally supportive of brief
low-topped supercells. This potential may be relatively more
probable along the Oregon coast early this evening as 50 kt 850-mb
winds coincide with near-50F surface dew points and potentially a
couple hundred J/kg SBCAPE. A brief tornado, isolated severe wind
gusts, and small hail are all possible in the more robust low-topped
convection consisting of showers and sporadic lightning flashes.
..Guyer/Wendt.. 12/22/2021
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