SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1009 AM CST Wed Dec 01 2021 Valid 011630Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms remain possible into early evening across parts of the Mid-Mississippi Valley into Kentucky and Tennessee. ...Mid-MS Valley to KY/TN... A flurry of lightning flashes occurred over the past few hours across southeast MO and southern IL within an arc of elevated convection in the forced ascent corridor ahead of a progressive shortwave trough. Area 12Z RAOBs and recent AMDAR data near Memphis and Nashville suggest buoyancy in this regime is scant and spatially confined within a modestly steep mid-level lapse rate plume, rendering above-average uncertainty in the longevity of the isolated thunderstorm threat. CAM guidance that tended to more accurately simulate the ongoing convection suggests an overall decrease this afternoon as large-scale ascent appears to diminish slightly. Still, potential for very isolated thunderstorms may persist farther east in TN/KY through early evening before instability/buoyancy becomes negligible. ..Grams/Lyons.. 12/01/2021 Read more LIVE: spc.noaa.gov
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