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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.


Wednesday, December 1, 2021

SPC Dec 1, 2021 0700 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1109 PM CST Tue Nov 30 2021 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A couple of weak thunderstorms are possible near the Rio Grande River and higher terrain of southwest Texas, but the risk of thunderstorms appears negligible elsewhere across the U.S. Thursday through Thursday night. ...Discussion... Although a significant digging short wave impulse may suppress mid-level ridging across parts of the Canadian Prairies, models indicate that a strong, broadly anticyclonic belt of flow will persist in mid to upper levels, from the eastern mid-latitude Pacific across much of the northern tier of the U.S. through this period. The leading edge of this jet is forecast to dig southeast of the Mid Atlantic coast, into the base of an amplifying mid-level trough off the northern Atlantic Seaboard, which may be accompanied by substantive further deepening of a surface cyclone migrating across southern Quebec through the lower St. Lawrence Valley. At the same time, a developing perturbation, emerging from persistent weak mid/upper troughing in the subtropical westerlies, is forecast to overspread parts of the southern Rockies, Rio Grande River and higher terrain of southwest Texas, and adjacent southern Great Plains. As this occurs, surface ridging initially encompassing much of the Gulf Coast and Gulf of Mexico may slowly weaken. However, low-level moisture return likely will remain generally modest, and confined to a shallow near-surface layer across the lower Rio Grande Valley into portions of the southern Great Plains. Across the higher terrain of southwest Texas into parts of the Edwards Plateau and Texas South Plains, NAM forecast soundings suggest that moisture return emanating from the subtropical eastern Pacific may contribute to weak destabilization by late Thursday afternoon into Thursday night. Northeast of the higher terrain, it appears that this will be mostly after dark, above elevated mixed-layer air, and it remains unclear whether forcing for ascent will be sufficient to contribute to an appreciable risk for thunderstorms. However, orographic forcing may aid the development of a couple of weak thunderstorms across the mountains of southwest Texas by Thursday evening. ..Kerr.. 12/01/2021 Read more LIVE:
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