SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0141 PM CST Tue Nov 09 2021 Valid 092000Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN WASHINGTON AND FAR NORTHWEST OREGON... ...SUMMARY... A brief tornado or locally damaging wind gust is possible this afternoon, mainly across a portion of western Washington. ...20z update... The previous outlook reasoning remains on track, and no changes were made with this issuance. Please refer to MCD 1933 for the latest short-term thinking regarding severe potential across portions of coastal Washington. ..Bunting.. 11/09/2021 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1024 AM CST Tue Nov 09 2021/ ...Western Washington/northwest Oregon... A shortwave trough and related cold front will continue to move eastward/inland through the afternoon. Via cloud breaks and a trough-associated pocket of -30C 500 mb temperatures, low/mid-level lapse rates will steadily steepen this afternoon, with a few hundred J/kg SBCAPE expected to be maximized along the Washington Coast. This may be sufficient for some semi-stout/sustained low-topped thunderstorms, with strong deep-layer southwesterly winds potentially supportive of organized clusters and possibly a weak/transient supercell or two. A brief tornado and/or convectively enhanced damaging wind gust will be possible, particularly in near-coastal Washington areas this afternoon. Read more LIVE: spc.noaa.gov
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