SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1226 AM CST Tue Nov 09 2021 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Wednesday afternoon and evening across portions of the southern Plains. Hail and locally damaging wind gusts will be the main hazards with these storms. ...Southern Plains... A mid/upper trough will be oriented over the High Plains Wednesday morning, and pivot eastward toward the mid-MO and lower MS Valleys by Thursday morning. At the surface, a weak low is forecast to develop over northwest TX and migrate east near the Red River vicinity while a cold front advances southeast across OK/TX during the afternoon and into the overnight hours. Increasing southerly low level flow will transport Gulf moisture northward, with upper 50s to low 60s dewpoints as far north as southeast KS. Increasing, yet still modest, boundary-layer moisture beneath steep midlevel lapse rates will support weak destabilization (less than 1000 /kg MLCAPE) by afternoon. As the upper trough ejects eastward, effective shear will increase to around 30-40 kt in conjunction with increasing ascent along the southeastward-advancing cold front. While weak instability and a lack of better quality boundary-layer moisture will limit overall severe potential, at least a few organized cells capable of hail and locally damaging gusts will be possible from late afternoon into the evening hours. Tornado potential appears low, again due to poor low-level instability, but favorably curved low-level hodographs are noted in forecast soundings. A brief tornado could occur near the surface low where low-level shear will be maximized and relatively greater low-level dew points will be present. ..Leitman.. 11/09/2021 Read more LIVE: spc.noaa.gov
http://dlvr.it/SC9ZFP
