SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0734 AM CDT Fri Nov 05 2021 Valid 051300Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTRAL AND SOUTH FL... ...SUMMARY... A brief tornado or two, locally damaging winds, and small hail are possible, mainly over south Florida this morning and southwest to west-central Florida during the late afternoon and evening. ...FL... Several weak and transient supercells occurred earlier this morning across south FL within a low-level warm-advection regime when 0-3 km SRH was enhanced along/ahead of the surface front. This flow has commenced weakening over the past couple hours across the area per Miami and Key West VWP data. This trend along with marginal 0-1 km SRH and rather weak mid-level lapse rates environment should continue to mitigate the magnitude and spatial extent of the severe threat this morning. Widespread stratiform to the north of the active thunderstorm activity will slow daytime destabilization. But increasingly veered low-level winds along with impinging of a mid-level dry slot from the central Gulf should aid in advancing the surface front northward across parts of the peninsula later today. Immediately ahead of the shortwave trough and attendant weak surface cyclone that is progged to reach the west-central coast this evening, an increase in severe potential may occur along the southwest to west-central portion of the peninsula. Guidance does differ with the degree of instability away from the immediate coast, which appears tied to how much destabilization can occur in the wake of convective activity that may linger most of the day across south FL. In addition, the degree of low-level mass response varies as well with most of the warm sector expected to have modest and veered winds. As such, brief tornado potential may be confined to near the immediate surface front, with greatest uncertainty in the extent of the threat overnight towards the east-central coast. ..Grams/Broyles.. 11/05/2021 Read more LIVE: spc.noaa.gov
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