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Thursday, November 4, 2021

SPC Nov 4, 2021 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0242 PM CDT Thu Nov 04 2021 Valid 042000Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not expected across the U.S. today. ...20Z Outlook Update.., Low-level convergence still appears relatively weak, but latest satellite imagery suggests that the initiation of at least one or two thunderstorms is possible by 22-23Z over interior southern Florida, within a confluent low-level regime south of Lake Okeechobee into areas east of Fort Myers. This is where insolation within a seasonably moist boundary layer has contributed to CAPE on the order of 1000-1500 J/kg. Beneath moderate to strong southwesterly flow in the 500-300 mb layer, deep-layer shear is strong, but it is still not obvious that storms will be able to pose more than a small to perhaps marginally severe hail, and locally strong, but sub-severe, wind gust risk. As a result severe probabilities are being maintained at less that 5 percent. Otherwise, this activity seems likely to weaken after dark, with the loss of daytime heating, and probabilities for thunderstorm activity over inland areas of central and southern Florida appear generally low. ..Kerr.. 11/04/2021 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1058 AM CDT Thu Nov 04 2021/ ...FL... A large upper trough remains in place over the eastern CONUS today, with a southern stream jet max tracking across the Gulf of Mexico toward FL. Increasing large-scale lift ahead of this feature will result in expanding coverage of showers and thunderstorms over the southern FL peninsula this afternoon and tonight. Ample low-level moisture and MLCAPE values approaching 1000 J/kg will support a few robust thunderstorms will heavy rain and perhaps gusty winds. However, low and mid-level winds are rather weak today. This should limit the risk of severe storm activity to very isolated and brief in nature. Elsewhere, a few lightning flashes are possible this afternoon over the mountains of northern ID and vicinity. This threat should end by 00z. Read more LIVE: spc.noaa.gov