SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0710 PM CDT Wed Nov 03 2021 Valid 040100Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Marginally severe hail or wind may occur over Deep South Texas this evening and tonight. ...Deep South TX... A cold front continues to surge southward over the area. Elevated showers and thunderstorms exist mainly north of the boundary, and isolated storms have shown signs of marginal hail. The air mass ahead of the front remains unstable, with around 1500 J/kg MLCAPE. Cool midlevel temperatures are also aiding instability, but flow around 500 mb is modest at 20-25 kt. Deep-layer effective shear is maximized near the boundary, where boundary-layer winds are east/northeasterly. This, in combination with sufficient westerlies aloft, may continue to support periodically strong storms, a few of which may produce marginal hail. Severe gusts appear unlikely, assuming most of the convection remains north of the front. However, will maintain a small 5% wind area for extreme southern areas. ..Jewell.. 11/04/2021 Read more LIVE: spc.noaa.gov
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