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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.

Wednesday, November 3, 2021

SPC Nov 3, 2021 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0731 AM CDT Wed Nov 03 2021 Valid 031300Z - 041200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not currently forecast across the contiguous United States today and tonight. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Cyclonic flow aloft will persist across much of the central and eastern CONUS today. Several shortwave troughs are forecast to move through this more expansive upper troughing, including the southern-stream shortwave currently moving through the southern High Plains. This system is expected to continue progressing southeastward throughout the day, and will likely reach the TX Hill Country by early Thursday morning. Recent surface analysis places a cold front from just north of DRT eastward through the Houston area and off the upper TX Coast. This front is expected to push southward throughout the day, with both ascent along the front as well as ascent attendant to the approaching shortwave contributing to a relatively broad area of showers and thunderstorms from the TX Hill Country across much of central and southeast TX. Much of this activity will be behind the front amid modest buoyancy, but a few pre-frontal storms are possible across from the middle/lower Rio Grande Valley to the lower TX Coast. Despite relatively moist low levels, warm temperatures aloft will temper the overall buoyancy. This area will also be displaced south of the stronger flow aloft, although some modest shear may result from the veering of the low-level easterly flow to westerly in the mid levels. These environmental conditions could support a few strong storms, but overall storm intensity/coverage will be limited. Elsewhere, a strong shortwave trough will move across the northern CA/Pacific Northwest coast this evening and tonight, with a few lightning flashes possible within the primary frontal band. ..Mosier.. 11/03/2021 Read more LIVE: