Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 AM CST Sun Nov 28 2021 Valid 011200Z - 061200Z ...DISCUSSION... Latest medium-range guidance suggests that the predictability of short wave developments within the large-scale pattern may be fairly low through this period. However, in the mean, ensemble output generally indicates that deep-layer troughing will probably remain focused east of the middle/upper Mississippi Valley, while low-level ridging remains prominent across much of the Gulf of Mexico and Gulf coast vicinity. It appears that there may be at least one substantive mid-level perturbation accompanied by reinforcement of potentially cool/dry, if not particularly cold, air across the central and eastern U.S. during the middle to latter portion of the coming week, and another to the east of the Rockies sometime next weekend or thereafter. For any appreciable risk of severe thunderstorms to develop, a substantive/deep moisture return off the Gulf of Mexico likely will be needed, and this remains questionable through late next weekend. Read more LIVE: spc.noaa.gov
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