SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1021 AM CST Sat Nov 27 2021 Valid 271630Z - 281200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected across the contiguous United States through early Sunday. ...Synopsis... Within the southern stream of the mid-level westerlies, a weak upper low over northern Mexico and West Texas will transition to an open shortwave trough as it moves east and is absorbed by a larger synoptic trough over the northeastern CONUS. At the surface, a cool post-frontal airmass over central and southern Texas will undergo minimal modification through the day, with widespread showers and cloud cover limiting diurnal heating north of the remnant coastal front. Regional observed and model soundings show generally weak lapse rates, less than 6.5 C/km, through the column despite cooling temperatures aloft. The net effect will be insufficient buoyancy available for updrafts capable of lightning as the core of the shortwave trough moves over south Texas this afternoon and evening. A secondary cold front and weak cyclogenesis along the coastal front will reinforce offshore flow as cold air ahead of strengthening surface high pressure over the interior CONUS will scour remaining moisture late tonight into early Sunday, precluding thunderstorm development over the CONUS. ..Lyons/Grams.. 11/27/2021 Read more LIVE: spc.noaa.gov
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