SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1008 AM CST Fri Nov 26 2021 Valid 261630Z - 271200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...West TX... A closed mid-level low in the southern stream near the Gulf of CA should progress into northern Chihuahua by 12Z. While steep mid-level lapse rates are not progged to translate east of Sonora, minimal MUCAPE (up to around 100 J/kg) might spread across the international border as far east as the Permian Basin and Edwards Plateau. A couple lightning flashes may be possible in the early morning within the warm/moist advection regime downstream of the closed low. Given the modest forcing for ascent amid flimsy buoyancy and weak upper lapse rates for charge separation, overall thunder probabilities appear to be less than 10 percent. ..Grams/Lyons.. 11/26/2021 Read more LIVE: spc.noaa.gov
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