Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0247 AM CST Wed Nov 24 2021 Valid 271200Z - 021200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range guidance is in good agreement that a split-flow upper pattern will be in place across the CONUS early D4/Saturday. A shortwave trough is expected to progress through the northern stream, moving from northern/central Plains across the Mid MS Valley on D4/Saturday and through the Mid-Atlantic Coast early D5/Sunday. Another shortwave through will follow in the wake of first, with this train of shortwaves helping to maintain the upper troughing across the eastern CONUS int early next week. An upper low over northwest Mexico early D4/Saturday will progress slowly northeastward within the weak southern stream, gradually devolving into an open wave over the southern Plains by late D5/Sunday. Guidance differs on the timing and strength, but a series of shortwave troughs are expected to traverse the northern stream during the first half of next week. Each shortwave will be accompanied by a surge of dry continental air and stable conditions are expected to prevail through the middle of next week, with very low potential for severe thunderstorms. Read more LIVE: spc.noaa.gov
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