SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0139 AM CST Tue Nov 23 2021 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible from the Texas Hill Country/south Texas into the Arklatex region, but severe storm potential is currently low. ...Synopsis... An upper trough is expected to extend from western Ontario southwestward across the Plains and Southwest through the central Baja Peninsula early Thursday morning. Medium-range guidance is in good agreement that this upper trough will fully bifurcate during the period, with the northern portion continuing eastward/southeastward and the southern part developing into a closed circulation over the central Baja Peninsula. At the surface, a cold front is forecast to extend from a low over far northeastern Ontario southwestward to the Edwards Plateau in TX Thursday morning. Modest low-level moisture and buoyancy are expected to be in place ahead of this front from the TX Hill Country into the Arklatex, and showers and isolated thunderstorm will likely be ongoing in this region at the start of the period. Much of this region will be displaced south of the stronger flow aloft, limiting the overall severe potential. The only exception is around the Arklatex will a storm or two could briefly become strong enough to produce small hail. The cold front is expected to move off the TX coast by Thursday evening, with stable conditions in its wake. Dry and stable conditions are expected elsewhere across the Plains as well as over the remaining portions of the CONUS. ..Mosier.. 11/23/2021 Read more LIVE: spc.noaa.gov
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