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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.

Monday, November 22, 2021

SPC Nov 22, 2021 0830 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0130 AM CST Mon Nov 22 2021 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are possible across portions of the southern Plains on Wednesday, but severe storm potential is currently low. ...Synopsis... An expansive upper trough is forecast to cover much of the western and central CONUS early Wednesday. This upper trough is expected to gradually progress eastward, while several embedded shortwave troughs rotate through it. Guidance continues to suggest this upper trough will trend toward bifurcation late Wednesday night/early Thursday morning, with an embedded shortwave remaining progressive across the Canadian Prairie Provinces and northern Plains while another less progressive embedded shortwave trough moves across southern CA, western/southern AZ, and the northern Baja Peninsula. A surface low will likely be centered over the MN Arrowhead Wednesday morning, with a cold front extending southwestward to another low over the eastern OK Panhandle. This cold front is forecast to move southeastward throughout the period and is expected to stretch from eastern Lower MI southwestward into the TX Hill Country by early Thursday morning. Low-level moisture return ahead of this front will bring mid 50s dewpoints into central/eastern OK and low 60s dewpoints into north TX. Isolated thunderstorms are expected in the vicinity of the front amid this increased moisture and buoyancy. Much of this thunderstorm activity will likely be north of the front and buoyancy will be modest, limiting the overall severe storm potential. Even so, a few updrafts may be strong enough to produce isolated hail, although anticipated low coverage and limited predictability preclude introducing any probabilities. ..Mosier.. 11/22/2021 Read more LIVE: