SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0652 AM CST Thu Nov 18 2021 Valid 181300Z - 191200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk of severe thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S. today through tonight. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A positively tilted upper trough currently extends from central Ontario southeastward into Ozark Plateau. This upper trough is expected to progress eastward throughout the while assuming a more neutral tilt. By early Friday morning this upper trough will extend from the northern Quebec through the Mid-Atlantic States. During the same period, an occluded low associated with this trough will track across the James Bay and northern Quebec. This low will be accompanied by an expansive cold front, which currently extends from the triple point over central Quebec southwestward into the Lower MS Valley. Steady eastward/southeastward progression of this front is anticipated, taking it through much of the Southeast as well as off the Northeast Coast by late tonight. By early tomorrow morning, the front should be through all of the eastern CONUS except southern FL. Isolated thunderstorms will likely continue near this front across the Lower MS Valley for the next few hours. Thunderstorm activity will likely continue across deep south TX through mid-day until after the front moves offshore as well. Low-level moisture convergence to the north/northeast of a weak surface low is also contributing to thunderstorm development across south-central LA. This activity will likely persist throughout the day while moving eastward, although it is expected to stay primarily over the Gulf. Lastly, a weak shortwave trough currently north of the Yucatan Channel is expected to continue northeastward, resulting in showers and thunderstorms across central and southern FL. ..Mosier.. 11/18/2021 Read more LIVE: spc.noaa.gov
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