SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 AM CST Mon Nov 15 2021 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms appear unlikely across the contiguous United States on Wednesday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A large-scale upper trough/low will continue moving eastward across central Canada and the Plains on Wednesday. This trough should eventually overspread much of the Midwest/Great Lakes and MS Valley by the end of the period. An attendant surface low initially centered over southern Manitoba is forecast to develop gradually eastward across Ontario through the day in tandem with the upper trough/low. A cold front extending from this surface low should sweep generally east-southeastward across much of the Great Lakes/Midwest, lower/mid MS Valley, and southern Plains. Modest low-level moisture return should occur ahead of the cold front, particularly across parts of central/east TX into the lower MS Valley. However, instability will likely remain weak across the warm sector owing to a low-level inversion. This cap should also tend to limit potential for convection through much of the day, but eventually the low-level frontal forcing should be enough for isolated thunderstorms to develop Wednesday evening/night from parts of the southern Plains into the lower MS Valley and Mid-South vicinity. Although there should be some modest enhancement to deep-layer shear across these areas, the rather weak instability forecast and tendency for convection to be quickly undercut by the surging cold front will likely limit the potential for severe thunderstorms. ..Gleason.. 11/15/2021 Read more LIVE: spc.noaa.gov
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