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Wednesday, November 10, 2021

SPC Nov 11, 2021 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0646 PM CST Wed Nov 10 2021 Valid 110100Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN OKLAHOMA INTO NORTH TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible into this evening across parts of central/eastern Oklahoma into North Texas. ...Synopsis... A well-defined upper trough continues to move south and east through the Plains this evening. Mid-level forcing for ascent remains strongest from eastern Kansas into North Texas. Continued storm development is expected along the cold front as it progresses southeastward along with the upper trough. ...Oklahoma/North Texas... Thunderstorms continue to develop along the cold front in central Oklahoma. Large hail remains possible with these storms given the steep lapse rates observed on this evening regional soundings. However, deep-layer shear in Oklahoma has weakened some over the last few hours and storm mode should generally become linear quickly. Farther south into North Texas, stronger shear exists beneath the mid-level jet core. Storms have maintained supercellular structure near and south of the Red River thus far. These storms would pose the greatest risk for large hail up to 2-2.5 inches, potentially. KFWD also shows an increasing low-level jet. Tornado potential will be maximized in this region as well until 850 mb winds veer with time and storm mode likely becomes more unfavorable. As the front progresses this evening, storm mode will become more linear across Oklahoma and North Texas and the primary threat will become damaging wind gusts. ...Kansas/Missouri/Iowa... A line of forced convection will continue this evening. A increasingly unfavorable thermodynamic environment will likely mean a decrease in severe potential with time. A strong low-level wind field will support a threat for locally damaging wind gusts for another few hours. ..Wendt.. 11/11/2021 Read more LIVE: spc.noaa.gov