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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.

Monday, November 1, 2021

SPC Nov 1, 2021 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0738 AM CDT Mon Nov 01 2021 Valid 011300Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States today and tonight. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Cyclonic flow aloft will persist across the northern 2/3rds of the CONUS, with the shortwave trough currently moving into the northern Plains/Upper Midwest expected to reinforce the cyclonic flow already in place. Cold mid-level temperatures attendant to this shortwave will support shallow buoyancy, and a few isolated lightning flashes are possible within the lake-effect showers expected across eastern portions of the Upper MI today/tonight. Additionally, the progression of this shortwave will encourage a southward surge of cold and dry continental air across the northern/central Plains and upper MS Valley, augmenting the stable conditions already in place. Modest shortwave ridging is forecast to move through the southern stream across the Four Corners into the central/southern High Plains. Low-level flow will strengthen ahead of this ridging across West TX, with just enough warm-air advection to support isolated lightning flashes tonight into Tuesday morning across northwest TX and southwest/south-central OK. Lastly, a subtle shortwave trough is expected to move from the northern Great Basin through the central Rockies. Cold mid-level temperatures will support weak buoyancy and the potential for a few lightning flashes within the deeper/more persistent storms. ..Mosier.. 11/01/2021 Read more LIVE: