SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 PM CDT Sat Oct 09 2021 Valid 092000Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE EASTERN DAKOTAS INTO WESTERN MINNESOTA... ...SUMMARY... Severe hail, damaging gusts and a few tornadoes are possible through this evening over parts of the eastern Dakotas and Minnesota. ...Eastern Dakotas into MN and South FL... The ongoing forecast remains on track and no changes are needed to the outlook. See the previous discussion below for more details. ...NC Outer Banks... A strong storm or two is possible in the NC Outer Bakes vicinity as a surface low meanders just offshore. Strong low-level northeasterly flow could allow for some locally gusty winds, but more favorable parameters for severe convection will remain offshore. ..Leitman.. 10/09/2021 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1057 AM CDT Sat Oct 09 2021/ ...Eastern Dakotas into MN... Morning water vapor loop shows a strong upper trough moving across the CO Rockies into the central Plains. At the surface, a weak low currently over northern NE will deepen and track into southeast SD later today. Substantial midlevel height falls and upper forcing will overspread the central and northern Plains this afternoon and evening, with strong southeasterly low-level winds aiding in moistening/destabilization. This should lead to increasing coverage and intensity of thunderstorms through the afternoon over SD. Initial storms that are developing now may eventually pose a marginal hail threat. However, a more robust severe potential is expected to develop by mid-late afternoon as storms develop along the west edge of the instability gradient and track rapidly northeastward across the SLGT risk area. Isolated supercell storms are possible with an attendant tornado risk. However, the main concern is expected to be the evolution into a bowing line with associated risks of damaging winds and large hail early this evening. ...FL... Full sunshine is occurring over southeast FL, where dewpoints in the mid 70s and cool temperatures aloft are resulting in strong instability. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop over the southern FL peninsula and track southeastward this afternoon and early evening. Some strengthening of midlevel winds may be sufficient to aid in the organization of a storm or two, posing a risk of gusty winds or hail. Read more LIVE: spc.noaa.gov
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