SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1210 PM CDT Fri Oct 08 2021 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST ND...NORTHEAST SD AND WEST-CENTRAL MN... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong/locally severe storms -- capable of producing hail, and perhaps a few damaging wind gusts -- will be possible across parts of the northern Plains vicinity on Saturday. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough will eject eastward, developing an upper low, over the northern Plains on Saturday. This will bring a belt of moderate southwesterly mid/upper level flow over the mid-MO/upper MS Valleys by late afternoon. A surface low near the MT/ND/SD border early Saturday will deepen while slowly shifting east/northeast across ND through the period. This will bring a cold front sweeping eastward across the northern/central Plains from late afternoon through the overnight period. ...ND/SD/MN Vicinity... South/southeasterly low-level flow ahead of the surface low and cold front will maintain modest boundary-layer moisture across the region, with dewpoints in the upper 50s to low 60s. Cooling aloft with the approach of the upper low will result in steepening midlevel lapse rates, aiding in weak destabilization from late afternoon into the evening atop low-level capping. Increasing ascent and low-level warm advection should result in weakening of the cap, but convection may tend to remain elevated. Favorable veering vertical wind profiles will result in effective shear magnitudes around 25-30 kt, allowing for isolated organized convection. Isolated large hail and locally strong gusts will be the main hazards with this activity from late afternoon into the early overnight period. Increasing boundary-layer inhibition overnight should limit greater severe wind potential despite an increasing low-level jet. ..Leitman.. 10/08/2021 Read more LIVE: spc.noaa.gov
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