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Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data updated 24-48 hours after end of each day. MOBILE CHGOWX.COM ...
Weather conditions on bar directly above are near Lakefront. Weather conditions with Moon are O'Hare (official).

Thursday, October 7, 2021

SPC Oct 7, 2021 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0722 AM CDT Thu Oct 07 2021 Valid 071300Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN AND FL PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... A brief tornado and locally damaging winds are possible through midday over a portion of the Florida Panhandle. A few strong storms with gusty winds and marginally severe hail will be possible from mid-afternoon into this evening across parts of the eastern Great Basin. ...FL Panhandle... Similar to the past couple mornings, remnant overnight convection may pose a near-term threat for a brief tornado and locally damaging winds. Low-level flow is generally anemic, but regenerative updrafts in the presence of convective outflow has yielded transient supercell structures within the past couple hours. While a tornado occurring is unlikely, 0-1 km SRH around 100 m2/s2 per EVX/TLH VWPs in the presence of a richly moist air mass characterized by 72-74 F surface dew points will support a low-probability threat through about midday. See MCD 1808 for further near-term information. ...Eastern Great Basin... Within the left-exit region of an intense upper jet centered off the CA coast, a series of low-amplitude impulses embedded within the southwesterly flow regime will approach the Great Basin region this afternoon. Low-level moisture will remain limited, but moderately steep mid-level lapse rates around 7-7.5 C/km should support meager MLCAPE of 250-500 J/kg by peak heating. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop within this regime towards mid-afternoon. The inverted-V thermodynamic profiles in conjunction with around 30 kt effective bulk shear might support a few strong wind gusts and a couple instances of marginally severe hail with the stronger storms. ...Lower Midwest to the Cumberland Plateau... Upper low over east-central MO will continue to drift north across the Mid-MS Valley. Scattered thunderstorms will develop this afternoon immediately east of the low across IL and likely separately in a weak warm theta-e advection plume across the Cumberland Plateau. Steeper mid-level lapse rates will be confined near the low within a weakly sheared environment. Small hail is possible, but severe hail appears unlikely. Farther east, weak low-level flow and 0-1 km SRH holding below 100 m2/s2 should mitigate a tornado threat. ..Grams/Mosier.. 10/07/2021 Read more LIVE: spc.noaa.gov
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