SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0722 AM CDT Thu Oct 07 2021 Valid 071300Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN AND FL PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... A brief tornado and locally damaging winds are possible through midday over a portion of the Florida Panhandle. A few strong storms with gusty winds and marginally severe hail will be possible from mid-afternoon into this evening across parts of the eastern Great Basin. ...FL Panhandle... Similar to the past couple mornings, remnant overnight convection may pose a near-term threat for a brief tornado and locally damaging winds. Low-level flow is generally anemic, but regenerative updrafts in the presence of convective outflow has yielded transient supercell structures within the past couple hours. While a tornado occurring is unlikely, 0-1 km SRH around 100 m2/s2 per EVX/TLH VWPs in the presence of a richly moist air mass characterized by 72-74 F surface dew points will support a low-probability threat through about midday. See MCD 1808 for further near-term information. ...Eastern Great Basin... Within the left-exit region of an intense upper jet centered off the CA coast, a series of low-amplitude impulses embedded within the southwesterly flow regime will approach the Great Basin region this afternoon. Low-level moisture will remain limited, but moderately steep mid-level lapse rates around 7-7.5 C/km should support meager MLCAPE of 250-500 J/kg by peak heating. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop within this regime towards mid-afternoon. The inverted-V thermodynamic profiles in conjunction with around 30 kt effective bulk shear might support a few strong wind gusts and a couple instances of marginally severe hail with the stronger storms. ...Lower Midwest to the Cumberland Plateau... Upper low over east-central MO will continue to drift north across the Mid-MS Valley. Scattered thunderstorms will develop this afternoon immediately east of the low across IL and likely separately in a weak warm theta-e advection plume across the Cumberland Plateau. Steeper mid-level lapse rates will be confined near the low within a weakly sheared environment. Small hail is possible, but severe hail appears unlikely. Farther east, weak low-level flow and 0-1 km SRH holding below 100 m2/s2 should mitigate a tornado threat. ..Grams/Mosier.. 10/07/2021 Read more LIVE: spc.noaa.gov
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