SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0719 AM CDT Wed Oct 06 2021 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS... CORRECTED FOR COLOR-FILL ERROR ...SUMMARY... A marginal hail threat is expected to develop across parts of the northern Plains from Friday afternoon into the early overnight period. ...Northern Plains... A fast moving upper-level trough will move across the Desert Southwest and Friday and reach the central Rockies Friday night. As the upper-level trough approaches, moisture advection will be maintained across the north-central states. Surface dewpoints are forecast to reach the upper 50s and lower 60s F across the eastern Dakotas and Minnesota by late afternoon, where moderate instability is forecast to develop. Thunderstorm development will first be likely in the western Dakotas early Friday evening with this convection moving eastward across the Dakotas during the mid to late evening. Thunderstorms may also affect western Minnesota during the overnight period. Forecast soundings during the evening in the central and eastern Dakota show a capping inversion in place but have a substantial amount of instability above the cap. MUCAPE is forecast to reach the 1000 to 2000 J/kg range. This combined with effective shear of 30 to 40 kt along with steep mid-level lapse rates could be sufficient for hail with the stronger updrafts. A marginal risk has been added for a hail threat mainly during the evening and early overnight period on Friday. ..Broyles.. 10/06/2021 Read more LIVE: spc.noaa.gov
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