SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0254 PM CDT Fri Oct 29 2021 Valid 292000Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN VIRGINIA AND THE DELMARVA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe storms remain possible this afternoon over parts of eastern Virginia into the Delmarva region. Marginally severe wind gusts should be the primary threat. ...20Z Update... Primary change with this update was to remove severe probabilities behind a broken line of low-topped convection over eastern VA. Isolated strong/gusty winds and perhaps a brief tornado will remain possible this afternoon along/south of a front draped across the Mid-Atlantic. For more information on the near term severe threat across this region, see Mesoscale Discussion 1928. ..Gleason.. 10/29/2021 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1117 AM CDT Fri Oct 29 2021/ ...NC into Delmarva... A large upper low is present today over the TN/OH Valleys, with an intense mid-level jet nosing across the Carolinas into southeast VA. Meanwhile at the surface, a warm front is lifting northward across the Delmarva region. A narrow axis of relatively moist and marginally unstable air immediately south of the warm front will pose a low risk of surface-based rotating storms this afternoon. Locally gusty winds or a brief tornado appear to be the main threats. Please refer to MCD #1927 for further mesoscale details. ...Other... After 32 years of federal service, and 23 years of tenure as a meteorologist at the Storm Prediction Center, Greg Dial is retiring today. He has issued thousands of life-saving forecasts, outlooks, and watches during that time. We thank Greg for his skills and friendship, and wish him all the best. Read more LIVE: spc.noaa.gov
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