SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0800 PM CDT Thu Oct 28 2021 Valid 290100Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE EXTREME EASTERN CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with marginally severe wind gusts will be possible this evening across parts of the southern Florida Peninsula and the extreme eastern Carolinas. ...Southern Florida... Water vapor imagery currently shows an upper-level trough over the Gulf of Mexico. At the surface, a cold front is located in the eastern Gulf of Mexico with a moist air mass ahead of the front. Surface dewpoints are in the lower to mid 70s F across south Florida and moderate instability is present. Scattered thunderstorms are ongoing along the northwestern edge of moderate instability from south of Tampa extending east-northeastward to near Lake Okeechobee. Rap forecast soundings in south Florida this evening show 0-6 km shear near 35 knots with about 20 knots of speed shear in the boundary layer. This could be enough for marginally severe wind gusts with the stronger multicells for a few more hours. A marginal tornado threat will also be possible with any storms that exhibit rotation. ...Far Eastern South Carolina/Southeast North Carolina. An upper-level low is currently located in the mid Mississippi Valley. Southwest mid-level flow is located across the eastern Gulf Coast States into the Carolinas. At the surface, a moist airmass is located across eastern Georgia and eastern South Carolina. The northern edge of the moist airmass is located in southern North Carolina but surface dewpoints there are only in the mid 50s F. Thunderstorms will move northeastward along the coast of North Carolina this evening where low-level moisture will increase. This combined with strong deep-layer shear may be enough for a marginal severe threat. A few strong wind gusts and a marginal tornado threat will be possible. ..Broyles.. 10/29/2021 Read more LIVE: spc.noaa.gov
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