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Thursday, October 28, 2021

SPC Oct 28, 2021 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0737 AM CDT Thu Oct 28 2021 Valid 281300Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM FLORIDA TO THE CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms will be possible across Florida and southern Georgia today, and into the Carolinas tonight. Damaging winds and a few tornadoes are possible. ...Southeast States including Florida to Carolinas... A prominent upper low/trough centered over the Ozarks will continue eastward today toward the Tennessee Valley, with a very strong (70-100 kt at 500 mb) and diffluent cyclonic belt of westerlies overspreading the coastal Southeast States through tonight. Multiple corridors of thunderstorms are ongoing this morning near/ahead of an eastward-moving cold front over the east-central Gulf of Mexico, with a preceding warm front draped near the coastal Gulf of Mexico portion of northern Florida, southeastward into the central/southern Florida Peninsula. An increasingly moist air mass will continue to spread north-northeastward across much of the Florida Peninsula in tandem with the advancing warm front, an air mass that will become increasingly conducive to surface-based storms over inland areas into mid/late morning and afternoon. For additional short-term details, see Mesoscale Discussion 1921. Pre-existing clouds and precipitation will tend to hinder overall destabilization, especially across the far northern Florida Peninsula into southern Georgia, with somewhat stronger heating and destabilization expected across the middle/southern part of the Florida Peninsula by afternoon. Strengthening deep-layer winds will support a combination of some semi-discrete supercells as well as organized bands of convection across much of the Florida Peninsula, and possibly nearby portions of southern/coastal Georgia. Damaging winds and a few tornadoes will be possible through around sunset in these areas. Farther north, as the warm front moves inland along the coastal Carolinas, wind profiles will become increasingly supportive of supercells as very strong surface-6km shear and SRH will be present across this region by early evening. Although the inland extent of warm-sector destabilization is a bit uncertain (especially into Piedmont areas), damaging winds along with a tornado risk will be possible with line segments/supercells, particularly for coastal areas of the Carolinas tonight. ..Guyer/Kerr.. 10/28/2021 Read more LIVE: spc.noaa.gov
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