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Thursday, October 28, 2021

SPC Oct 28, 2021 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1243 AM CDT Thu Oct 28 2021 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe storms will be possible from Florida to the Carolinas. Damaging winds and a few tornadoes should be the main threats. ...Southeastern US... Very strong mid-level height falls will overspread the southern Appalachians during the day as upper low shifts across the Ozark Plateau into western TN later tonight. 500mb jet will translate through the base of the low along the Gulf Coast, extending into the Carolinas where high-level diffluent flow should encourage convection during the latter half of the period. Current boundary-layer air mass across the southeastern US is quite cool/stable early this morning. However, significant recovery is expected within the warm advection zone, supporting the possibility for robust convection across this region. Early this morning, an expansive corridor of convection has evolved from the northern Gulf Basin, north into southern AL. Leading edge of this activity should gradually propagate across the FL Panhandle ahead of the synoptic boundary that will surge east into this region by sunrise. By mid day, surface warm front will advance considerably inland across southern GA with subsequent inland movement anticipated across coastal Carolinas during the overnight hours. Strongest convection will likely be limited to areas where near-70F surface dew points can return. Earlier thoughts regarding destabilization remain and have opted to only make minor adjustments across eastern NC for the very end of the period. Forecast soundings across the northern/central FL Peninsula support supercells but a multi-faceted storm mode is possible given the ongoing complex that should be ongoing at the start of the period. As the warm front moves inland along the Carolina Coast, wind profiles will become increasingly supportive of supercells as very strong surface-6km shear and SRH will be present across this region. Damaging winds are possible with line segments and supercells along with a few tornadoes. ..Darrow/Squitieri.. 10/28/2021 Read more LIVE: spc.noaa.gov