SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257 AM CDT Wed Oct 27 2021 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PART OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND COASTAL CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to widely scattered severe thunderstorms are possible Thursday and Thursday night for the northeast Gulf Coast and coastal Carolinas. ...Southeast... A strong mid-level low/trough will slowly move eastward across the lower MS Valley into the TN Valley during the period, as an intense 500-mb speed max moves across the northern Gulf of Mexico and noses into the eastern Carolinas overnight. An occluded surface low will move from the Ozarks eastward into KY as a cold front sweeps east across a large part of the Southeast during the period. A maritime warm front will advances northward into the Carolina coastal plain. There is high confidence in a band of showers and thunderstorms to be ongoing Thursday morning over the northern Gulf Coast. An isolated severe risk will probably accompany some of the stronger storms during the morning. By midday into the afternoon, the approach of the mid-level speed max and resulting strengthening wind profile will favor organized storm structures moving into the west coast from the Gulf. The very moist boundary layer depicted in forecast soundings and sufficient low-level shear may support a tornado risk from near Tampa Bay north-northeastward into northern FL. Damaging gusts though will tend to be the more prevalent risk with the convection. During the evening, it is expected that surface-based instability, via the northward-penetrating warm sector, will develop into coastal SC and southern NC. Damaging gusts and a tornado risk may accompany the more intense storms as this activity spreads northeast during the overnight into NC. ..Smith.. 10/27/2021 Read more LIVE: spc.noaa.gov
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