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Sunday, October 24, 2021

SPC Oct 24, 2021 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Sun Oct 24 2021 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL THROUGH SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AREA INTO A PORTION OF THE CAROLINAS AND MIDDLE ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with isolated wind damage are possible over parts of the southern and central Appalachians into the Carolinas and Middle Atlantic region Monday. ...Southern and Central Appalachians into the Carolinas and Middle Atlantic... A low-amplitude shortwave trough now moving through the central Plains will continue east through the Ohio Valley before reaching the Middle Atlantic region Monday evening. Attendant cold front will extend from a surface low in northern IN southwest into the lower MS Valley and southeast TX. This front will move east during the period and off the Atlantic seaboard by 12Z Tuesday. A complicating factor is the shortwave trough currently over the northern Gulf that will move northeast off the coastal Carolinas during the day. A surface low developing over the Gulf stream in association with this feature will tend to weaken the low-level pressure gradient ahead of the primary shortwave trough, potentially resulting in less robust moisture return and weaker wind profiles in the lowest 3 km. There remains some model differences regarding the strength of this offshore low and overall degree of severe threat inland with the NAM suggesting a more marginal threat for most areas. Nevertheless, dewpoints will probably increase to the mid 50s to near 60 F through the middle Atlantic region with low to mid 60s F possible across the Carolinas. However, weak mid-level lapse rates will tend to limit MLCAPE to generally 400-800 J/kg depending on degree of moisture return. A forced band of low-topped convection will likely be in progress just west of the central and southern Appalachians with at least a marginal threat for locally strong wind gusts. Some diabatic warming of the boundary layer is expected east of the higher terrain coincident with modest moisture return. This may contribute to some intensification of the convection especially from NC into VA. Deep layer shear of 40+ kt will support potential for embedded bowing segments with isolated damaging wind the main threat during the afternoon into the evening. ...Eastern Ohio... A low topped band of thunderstorms may develop along the front and just ahead of the vorticity maximum across eastern OH. This activity may be capable of producing small to marginally severe hail, gusty winds and perhaps a brief tornado during the afternoon. Overall threat in this region will be conditional upon sufficient boundary layer destabilization, but is expected to remain marginal. ..Dial.. 10/24/2021 Read more LIVE: spc.noaa.gov
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