SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0747 PM CDT Sat Oct 23 2021 Valid 240100Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Large hail is expected with thunderstorms late tonight across portions of the central Plains and Lower Missouri Valley region. ...01Z Update... ...Northeast KS/Southeast NE/Far Southwest IA/Northern MO... Recent surface analysis places a low near DDC, with a warm front extending east-northeastward from this low across southern KS. Additionally, area VAD profiles and SPC mesoanalysis continue to show increasing low-level flow throughout the warm sector to the south of this warm front. This low-level flow is expected to continue strengthening as the surface low slowly moves northeastward. Persistent warm-air advection along this frontal zone will promote the development of elevated thunderstorms in an arc from the eastern KS/NE border vicinity eastward across northern MO. Mid-level lapse rates (sampled well by the 00Z TOP sounding) are expected to steep enough to support moderate buoyancy and robust persistent updrafts. Effective bulk shear of 40-50 kt and modest hodograph curvature within the storm inflow layer will support the potential for embedded/elevated supercells capable of producing occasional large hail tonight. ...Far East-Central TX Panhandle/Far Western OK... Lone supercell in Wheeler and Collingsworth Counties in the far east-central TX Panhandle may persist for the hour or so before nocturnal stabilization leads to weakening. Until then, isolated hail and/or an isolated damaging wind gust may occur. ..Mosier.. 10/24/2021 Read more LIVE: spc.noaa.gov
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