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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.


Wednesday, October 20, 2021

SPC Oct 20, 2021 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1238 AM CDT Wed Oct 20 2021 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN OHIO INTO WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND FAR WESTERN NEW YORK AS WELL AS SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... A few showers/thunderstorms with gusty winds will be possible from eastern Ohio into western Pennsylvania Thursday afternoon. Isolated thunderstorms capable of marginally severe hail might occur late Thursday night over southern Oklahoma. ...Eastern Ohio and western Pennsylvania... Limited low-level moisture with a narrow corridor of mid 50s F dewpoints will return through the pre-frontal warm sector from OH into western PA. Forcing for ascent accompanying a progressive shortwave trough and its attendant cold front will move through the OH Valley during the day. Low-topped convection is expected to develop within the narrow corridor of very weak instability (less than 400 J/kg MUCAPE) along and just ahead of the front. Activity will be embedded within strong unidirectional southwesterly winds. Some potential will exist for higher momentum air to be transported to the surface within some of the rain cores. However, any severe threat should remain limited by the very marginal thermodynamic environment. ...Southern Oklahoma... A cold front is expected to stall in vicinity of the OK/TX border. Partially modified Gulf air will return northward beneath 6.5 - 7 C/km mid-level lapse rates, resulting in up to 1000 J/kg MUCAPE from northwest TX into southern OK overnight. Some uncertainty exists regarding extent of thunderstorm initiation, but modest isentropic ascent north of this boundary might contribute to the development of a few thunderstorms very late in the period, and some of these updrafts might become capable of producing a few instances of marginally severe hail. ..Dial.. 10/20/2021 Read more LIVE:
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