SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1219 PM CDT Mon Oct 18 2021 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe weather is not expected across the U.S. on Tuesday. ...Discussion... The primary feature of interest will be a shortwave trough moving from the central Rockies into the Plains, with upper low moving from CO/WY into NE. Strong height falls will occur with this system across the northern Plains, with a surface low deepening over NE during the day. A cold front will accompany this system, extending roughly from central NE into eastern CO by 00Z with a warm front from northeast NE into southern MN. Farther south, a dryline will stretch from central KS into western TX. Within the warm sector, a narrow plume of 50s F dewpoints will develop as southerly winds increase across the Plains and west of a surface high over the Southeast. While strong heating will occur from southwest NE into west TX, capping is likely to inhibit convection due to the early/poor-quality moisture return. However, cooling aloft with the upper trough as well as a substantial low-level jet will lead to weak elevated instability, with isolated to scattered thunderstorms possible primarily after 00Z from SD into western IA. Forecast soundings indicate convection may be rooted in the 850-700 mb layer, with only a few hundred J/kg MUCAPE. As such, severe weather is not anticipated. ..Jewell.. 10/18/2021 Read more LIVE: spc.noaa.gov
http://dlvr.it/S9qtGm
