SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0730 PM CDT Sat Oct 16 2021 Valid 170100Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN LONG ISLAND...FAR EASTERN CONNECTICUT...RHODE ISLAND AND EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS... ...SUMMARY... A narrow line of thunderstorms could still develop across parts of southeastern New England late this evening and pose some risk for potentially damaging wind gusts. ...01Z Outlook Update... The narrowing warm sector of the occluding cyclone over western Quebec is now generally confined to portions of southeastern New England. Warm layers aloft continue to inhibit destabilization of the seasonably moist boundary layer, as the mid-level cold core of the approaching mid/upper trough lags to the west of the eastward advancing surface cold front. However, it is still possible that lift along the front, beneath increasingly difluent upper flow, could support renewed strengthening of convection in a narrow line that could impact parts of southeastern New England by 03-04Z. If this occurs, precipitation loading could aid downward transport of higher momentum (including 40-60+ kt in the 850-500 mb layer), contributing to the risk for potentially damaging surface gusts. ..Kerr.. 10/17/2021 Read more LIVE: spc.noaa.gov
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