SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0752 PM CDT Fri Oct 15 2021 Valid 160100Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND UPPER OHIO VALLEY INTO LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION... ...SUMMARY... Strong to occasional severe thunderstorm development remains possible this evening across parts of the Tennessee Valley, and overnight across parts of the upper Ohio Valley into lower Great Lakes vicinity. ...01Z Outlook Update... Strong pre-frontal forcing for ascent has contributed to the evolution and maintenance of the squall line now spreading into western portions of middle Tennessee and adjacent northeastern Mississippi Valley. It appears that mid/upper support will begin to shift north-northeastward toward the upper Ohio Valley by late evening, as a vigorous upstream short wave trough pivots northeast of the middle Mississippi Valley. Until this occurs, boundary-layer instability ahead of the squall line may remain marginally supportive of renewed vigorous thunderstorm development this evening across middle Tennessee into the parts of the Cumberland Plateau. Convection is embedded within strongly sheared, 40-50 kt southwesterly deep-layer mean ambient flow, which will contribute to continuing risk for potentially damaging wind gusts and/or an isolated tornado or two, before storms wane late this evening. As a surface cyclone deepens over eastern southern Ontario into southwestern Quebec overnight, deepening surface troughing to its south, across western New York state into western Pennsylvania, may become the focus for at least scattered intensifying thunderstorm development after 16/06Z. It appears that a relatively moist boundary layer across this region will remain characterized by modest CAPE on the order of 500-1000 J/kg, in the presence of strengthening south-southwesterly lower/mid tropospheric wind fields, which will become increasingly conducive to organized convective development (potentially including supercell structures). ..Kerr.. 10/16/2021 Read more LIVE: spc.noaa.gov
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