SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1211 PM CDT Fri Oct 15 2021 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEASTERN U.S.... ...SUMMARY... Potential for a few damaging wind gusts will exist across portions of the Northeast and vicinity on Saturday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A deep upper trough is forecast to extend from northern Manitoba across western Ontario, the Upper Great Lakes/Upper Midwest, and the Mid MS Valley early Saturday. This upper trough is expected to move northeastward throughout the day, encouraged by the fast northeastward progression of an embedded shortwave trough moving from the middle OH Valley/Lower MI through the Northeast into New England. A surface low attendant to this embedded shortwave is expected to begin the period over far southern Quebec before continuing northward while occluding. Cold front attendant to this low will push eastward throughout the day, from its early morning position just east of the Appalachian crest to off the Eastern Seaboard. By early Sunday morning, the front will likely have moved entirely offshore, with the exception of South Florida and the Keys. Isolated thunderstorms are possible along and ahead of this front, with the strong flow aloft in place from northern Mid-Atlantic into New England contributing to the potential for a few more robust storms capable of damaging wind gusts. However, the overall severe threat is expected to remain isolated, owing to limited heating/buoyancy ahead of the front. Most likely corridor for strong gusts currently appears to be from eastern PA northeastward across northern/central NJ and the Hudson Valley into western MA/CT. Stable conditions are expected across the remainder of the CONUS, precluding thunderstorm development. ..Mosier.. 10/15/2021 Read more LIVE: spc.noaa.gov
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